Another "None of the Above" Presidential Election?

                     

As with all posts on this blog, this post presents the concerns of an Independent citizen 
about the state of politics and policies, and the impact on the country.  Today, my concerns

are focused on the impact that either of the currently leading  candidates in the November

Presidential election might have on the country over the next 4 years.

If Democrats choose Bernie Sanders as their Presidential candidate for the November 

election, many citizens who are not loyal partisans of either party, as I am not, and who 

care primarily about the future of the overall country, more than being loyal to either 

party, may be left with another “None of the Above” choice for President in 2020, as was 

the case in 2016.

This is a very disturbing situation for me as an Independent.  Given the policies and  

actions of President Trump in the past 3 years, I’m unable to vote for his re-election in 

any circumstance.  I am concerned that his re-election in 2020 would likely, and 

frighteningly, lead to more of the negative impacts of the past 3 years.  My major 

expectations about the outcomes that would follow President Trump’s re-election are:

ØRepealing of important health care program protections, including most importantly 

      pre-existing condition protections;

Ø  Continuing high annual deficits each year and a far greater total national debt;

Ø  Higher spending required in the budget on interest payments to service the debt, 

      taking resources from actual program needs;

Ø  Major cuts in all non-defense programs, including Social Security Retirement benefits 

      that millions of Americans have paid into from their own earnings, instead of 

      increasing program income and protecting surpluses from any other use to ensure the 

      program’s financial solvency;

Ø  Continuing the stagnant or very slow growth in middle class incomes, leading to 

      greater household income gaps between the middle class and top 20% of Americans;

Ø  Worsening of the erosion in the strength of our key alliances and in our investments in 

      International Diplomacy and Development,  programs critical to our national and 

      global security;

Ø  Continued and perhaps greater levels of unethical conflicts of interest, self-

      enrichment, and corruption of the principles of our democratic republic and key   

      institutions.

If the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders, I believe strongly that there’s a high  

probability that President Trump will win re-election.  With his national approval rating 

solidly in the range of 42%-47% consistently over the past 3 years, he is nearly 

guaranteed about 45% of the popular vote, compared to 46% won in 2016.  With that 

level of national support, he won 304 Electoral College votes and 30 states, compared 

to 227 Electoral College votes and 20 states for Hillary Clinton, despite winning 3 million 

more popular votes.

For President Trump to lose the election and be removed from office, the Democrat  

candidate must not just win more popular votes than President Trump, they must win 

more Electoral College votes from states that President Trump won in 2016.   For me, 

that means the Democrat candidate must be clearly stronger in 2 key policy areas than 

President Trump: (1) Overall Economic Growth policy, and (2) Health Care policy.

Unfortunately, the agenda Bernie Sanders is advocating would likely have disastrous            impacts on our economy if ever enacted.  It is not the overall goals of the Sanders 

agenda on changing the economic and governmental focus to serving the average 

citizens, versus the wealthy and connected segments of our country, that represents a 

problem for the country.  That focus is exactly what the country needs. 

But what Bernie Sanders has not yet addressed, and what will certainly be the focus of a      campaign against Donald Trump, is the net impact of the numerous separate spending 

and tax proposals that Bernie Sanders has advocated on the overall economy, the 

potential negative impacts on economic growth, and the potential impacts of slow or 

declining economic growth on jobs and working middle class incomes.  

Without integrating these programs in an overall economic plan involving all proposed 

spending, all proposed tax revenues, the resulting deficit forecast, and the resulting 

impact on overall economic growth, those specific “free” programs he advocates would 

be likely seen as leading to a major decline in our overall economic growth that would 

hurt the average citizen and weaken the security of our country. Voters would be faced 

with choosing the current “good” economy or the unknown risks of the multiple Sanders 

proposals in new taxes and spending, without knowing what the overall economic 

impacts would likely be.

Neither Bernie Sanders nor his supporters seem to be aware that without sustaining 

strong economic growth, the resources will not be available to fund anything like the 

ambitious programs he is advocating.  And unless he can speak convincingly to that 

point, I don’t believe the voters will be there for his election instead of President 

Trump’s.  The voter support in many of the states needed for either candidate to win the 

Presidency will come from citizens who understand and care strongly about the 

importance of at least sustaining the economic growth of the past 7 years, and the 

damage to millions of voters that a decline in economic growth would certainly cause.

I hope the Democrat candidates still in the race, including very importantly the 

candidates with solid economic experience and significant available funding – Messrs. 

Bloomberg and Steyer – will work together to develop and fund messaging about the 

kind of pro-growth economic policy that would enable any of the “moderate” Democrat 

candidates to promise the following benefits to voters:

1.  Democrats will at a minimum sustain and will work to increase the GDP economic 

     growth rate beyond the 2.0%-2.6% annual growth rates being achieved today, to 

     benefit all workers and the country.

2.  Democrats will focus on growing working middle class INCOMES (the combination 

     of wages PLUS profit sharing bonuses) as the key driver of stronger economic 

     growth, since 70% of economic GDP growth depends on increasing middle class 

     INCOME and spending, which is key to closing the income gap and enabling a higher 

     quality of life for most Americans.

3.  Democrats will establish a formal budget annually to significantly reduce existing 

     deficits, support investments in the world class educational, transportation and 

     energy infrastructure needed for greater growth and quality of life.  This will include 

     supporting the fastest possible transition from a carbon-based energy economy to a 

     carbon-less renewable energy economy based on solar, wind, battery and hydrogen 

     fuel cell industries, and the re-training of fossil fuel energy workers displaced by the 

     transition.

These goals are the key to the future economic security of the country and the reduction 

in the income gaps between the middle class and the top 10%-20% of all Americans.  

Workers overall will gain more in profit sharing than they can gain from middle class tax 

cuts or fighting for higher wages that are separated from the sustained growth of the 

business.  Unions should and would grow in importance, relevance and public support 

IF they become partners with management and owners in the actions to grow business 

profitability while sharing in a significant portion of the earned profits they help generate.

Here's the quick math on profit sharing to demonstrate the value such policy could 

provide for the country overall:

    Data on stock buy backs and the number of full time employees in the US during 2017-  
    2018 indicates that if just half the profits allocated to stock buy backs in 2017-2018 were 
    to be shared with all employed full time workers, the average worker would receive 
    $3,683 per year, or $7,367 over the two year period.  This is based on 126 Million full 
    time workers, and $4.5 Trillion in in stock buy backs over the 2 year period.

    Based on an average middle class income level of $64,000 per year, this would  
    represent a 5.8% per year annual income increase each year.  This is a far greater 
    impact on middle class income than tax credits or possible salary increases. And if                salary increases of 2%-3% were affordable, then the total increase in worker income 
    would be almost 8%-9% per year. 

    The key is, this level of middle class income growth will help close income gaps, grow 
    the economy overall, and do so without needing to cut any taxes … enabling the 
    government to afford a higher level of investment in infrastructure and education. 

Without this kind of focus on overall economic growth, and this level of innovative 

thinking on economic growth policy development, I’m afraid that the Democrats will fail 

to meet the needs of the country, will fail to win the Presidency, and will put our nation’s 

economic security will be risk.  

I hope at least one of the Democrat Presidential candidates will take the initiative to 

make overall economic growth a key part of their platform.