Monday, February 24, 2020

Another "None of the Above" Presidential Election?

                     
As with all posts on this blog, this post presents the concerns of an Independent citizen 
about the state of politics and policies, and the impact on the country.  Today, my concerns
are focused on the impact that either of the currently leading  candidates in the November
Presidential election might have on the country over the next 4 years.

If Democrats choose Bernie Sanders as their Presidential candidate for the November 
election, many citizens who are not loyal partisans of either party, as I am not, and who 
care primarily about the future of the overall country, more than being loyal to either 
party, may be left with another “None of the Above” choice for President in 2020, as was 
the case in 2016.

This is a very disturbing situation for me as an Independent.  Given the policies and  
actions of President Trump in the past 3 years, I’m unable to vote for his re-election in 
any circumstance.  I am concerned that his re-election in 2020 would likely, and 
frighteningly, lead to more of the negative impacts of the past 3 years.  My major 
expectations about the outcomes that would follow President Trump’s re-election are:

ØRepealing of important health care program protections, including most importantly 
      pre-existing condition protections;

Ø  Continuing high annual deficits each year and a far greater total national debt;

Ø  Higher spending required in the budget on interest payments to service the debt, 
      taking resources from actual program needs;

Ø  Major cuts in all non-defense programs, including Social Security Retirement benefits 
      that millions of Americans have paid into from their own earnings, instead of 
      increasing program income and protecting surpluses from any other use to ensure the 
      program’s financial solvency;

Ø  Continuing the stagnant or very slow growth in middle class incomes, leading to 
      greater household income gaps between the middle class and top 20% of Americans;

Ø  Worsening of the erosion in the strength of our key alliances and in our investments in 
      International Diplomacy and Development,  programs critical to our national and 
      global security;

Ø  Continued and perhaps greater levels of unethical conflicts of interest, self-
      enrichment, and corruption of the principles of our democratic republic and key   
      institutions.

If the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders, I believe strongly that there’s a high  
probability that President Trump will win re-election.  With his national approval rating 
solidly in the range of 42%-47% consistently over the past 3 years, he is nearly 
guaranteed about 45% of the popular vote, compared to 46% won in 2016.  With that 
level of national support, he won 304 Electoral College votes and 30 states, compared 
to 227 Electoral College votes and 20 states for Hillary Clinton, despite winning 3 million 
more popular votes.

For President Trump to lose the election and be removed from office, the Democrat  
candidate must not just win more popular votes than President Trump, they must win 
more Electoral College votes from states that President Trump won in 2016.   For me, 
that means the Democrat candidate must be clearly stronger in 2 key policy areas than 
President Trump: (1) Overall Economic Growth policy, and (2) Health Care policy.

Unfortunately, the agenda Bernie Sanders is advocating would likely have disastrous            impacts on our economy if ever enacted.  It is not the overall goals of the Sanders 
agenda on changing the economic and governmental focus to serving the average 
citizens, versus the wealthy and connected segments of our country, that represents a 
problem for the country.  That focus is exactly what the country needs. 

But what Bernie Sanders has not yet addressed, and what will certainly be the focus of a      campaign against Donald Trump, is the net impact of the numerous separate spending 
and tax proposals that Bernie Sanders has advocated on the overall economy, the 
potential negative impacts on economic growth, and the potential impacts of slow or 
declining economic growth on jobs and working middle class incomes.  

Without integrating these programs in an overall economic plan involving all proposed 
spending, all proposed tax revenues, the resulting deficit forecast, and the resulting 
impact on overall economic growth, those specific “free” programs he advocates would 
be likely seen as leading to a major decline in our overall economic growth that would 
hurt the average citizen and weaken the security of our country. Voters would be faced 
with choosing the current “good” economy or the unknown risks of the multiple Sanders 
proposals in new taxes and spending, without knowing what the overall economic 
impacts would likely be.

Neither Bernie Sanders nor his supporters seem to be aware that without sustaining 
strong economic growth, the resources will not be available to fund anything like the 
ambitious programs he is advocating.  And unless he can speak convincingly to that 
point, I don’t believe the voters will be there for his election instead of President 
Trump’s.  The voter support in many of the states needed for either candidate to win the 
Presidency will come from citizens who understand and care strongly about the 
importance of at least sustaining the economic growth of the past 7 years, and the 
damage to millions of voters that a decline in economic growth would certainly cause.

I hope the Democrat candidates still in the race, including very importantly the 
candidates with solid economic experience and significant available funding – Messrs. 
Bloomberg and Steyer – will work together to develop and fund messaging about the 
kind of pro-growth economic policy that would enable any of the “moderate” Democrat 
candidates to promise the following benefits to voters:

1.  Democrats will at a minimum sustain and will work to increase the GDP economic 
     growth rate beyond the 2.0%-2.6% annual growth rates being achieved today, to 
     benefit all workers and the country.

2.  Democrats will focus on growing working middle class INCOMES (the combination 
     of wages PLUS profit sharing bonuses) as the key driver of stronger economic 
     growth, since 70% of economic GDP growth depends on increasing middle class 
     INCOME and spending, which is key to closing the income gap and enabling a higher 
     quality of life for most Americans.

3.  Democrats will establish a formal budget annually to significantly reduce existing 
     deficits, support investments in the world class educational, transportation and 
     energy infrastructure needed for greater growth and quality of life.  This will include 
     supporting the fastest possible transition from a carbon-based energy economy to a 
     carbon-less renewable energy economy based on solar, wind, battery and hydrogen 
     fuel cell industries, and the re-training of fossil fuel energy workers displaced by the 
     transition.

These goals are the key to the future economic security of the country and the reduction 
in the income gaps between the middle class and the top 10%-20% of all Americans.  
Workers overall will gain more in profit sharing than they can gain from middle class tax 
cuts or fighting for higher wages that are separated from the sustained growth of the 
business.  Unions should and would grow in importance, relevance and public support 
IF they become partners with management and owners in the actions to grow business 
profitability while sharing in a significant portion of the earned profits they help generate.

Here's the quick math on profit sharing to demonstrate the value such policy could 
provide for the country overall:

    Data on stock buy backs and the number of full time employees in the US during 2017-  
    2018 indicates that if just half the profits allocated to stock buy backs in 2017-2018 were 
    to be shared with all employed full time workers, the average worker would receive 
    $3,683 per year, or $7,367 over the two year period.  This is based on 126 Million full 
    time workers, and $4.5 Trillion in in stock buy backs over the 2 year period.

    Based on an average middle class income level of $64,000 per year, this would  
    represent a 5.8% per year annual income increase each year.  This is a far greater 
    impact on middle class income than tax credits or possible salary increases. And if                salary increases of 2%-3% were affordable, then the total increase in worker income 
    would be almost 8%-9% per year. 

    The key is, this level of middle class income growth will help close income gaps, grow 
    the economy overall, and do so without needing to cut any taxes … enabling the 
    government to afford a higher level of investment in infrastructure and education. 

Without this kind of focus on overall economic growth, and this level of innovative 
thinking on economic growth policy development, I’m afraid that the Democrats will fail 
to meet the needs of the country, will fail to win the Presidency, and will put our nation’s 
economic security will be risk.  

I hope at least one of the Democrat Presidential candidates will take the initiative to 
make overall economic growth a key part of their platform.